Tesla Model S

This post fell through the crack of the Holiday rush and excitement, so without any further delay here is our 2010 electric drive predictions…

The gist is that if 2009 was the rebirth on the promise of the electric drive, 2010 is where the rubber meets the road.  2009 have seen a string of technological breakthroughs and enticing concepts that have even turned around the staunches nay sayers.

The Obvious Predictions First.  The obvious predictions we can make are the following, energy storage will continue to increase, electric vehicles, EV will become more and more mainstream, car makers will offer more and more concepts, some will be vaporware, others real and the alternative energy field will grow, as well as smart grids.

Car Makers That Get It.  There are a few car makers that stood above the crowd in 2009, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Ford, Renault, Peugeot, Tesla Motors, and Fisker Automotive.  We can sense the consolidation of these maker’s image as 2010 unfolds.  Fisker Automotive will unveil its Nina prototype that will directly rival GM’s Volt.  Tesla Motors will show a few working prototypes of its Model S.  Ford and Nissan will continue to prepare the respective Focus EV and Leaf, while developing their other cars.

Technologies That Makes It.  In this department alternative energy and clean tech is going to continue its upward trend.  The global financial instability has pushed investor to become a little more rational (please stop laughing, we are all hoping) and funds are moving towards cleaner technologies.  We will see more and more mergers and acquisitions as well as a few IPO, namely Tesla Motors and A123 Systems look like very probable candidates.

Anything else?  Let us know what you see for this year.

Tesla Motors Roadster, picture by Nick Zart

One very easy prediction made for 2010 is that IPOs will be strong on the radar bleep.  Will they be different from the last years?

The gist is that any market wants to grow and strive.  In order to do so, it needs to develop, invent and merge with other technology companies.  2010 looks ripe for some epic IPOs and mergers.

The Biggest Names In The New World.  Two of the biggest names in the new world of the electric drive that have hinted at IPOs are Tesla Motors and A123 Systems.  It makes perfect sense for Tesla Motors to initiate its own IPO this year.  As far as A123 Systems’ IPO, the battery maker has top notch batteries that have been used from converting Prius to plug-in hybrids, PHEV to world record electric motorcycle dragsters, the KillaCycle.

Alternative Industry IPOs.  Another notable IPO was the Californian solar energy company Solyndra Inc that filed for a $300 million IPO late December 2009.  This sector should see a lot of mergers and acquisitions this year, as well as a few IPOs which will set a trend.

What About The Others? What about other startups in the limelight?  We can see Fisker Automotive and a few others filing for an IPO at some point, but unlike Tesla Motors, Fisker Automotive only has beautiful prototypes to show for and nothing yet on the road.  Until they do, an IPO will be in the back burner.

All in all, green technology IPOs should have a good year 2010 with a little help from oil price continuing to rise.

Ford Focus BEV

Here is a recap of some of the electric drive news that made the top this week.

• Diesels And Two-Strokes.  Desperate times call for desperate measures and these turbulent times have seen the revised and improved diesel technology with turbo power.  The 2 stroke is also getting a moment of attention, according to the NYTimes.
• A123 Systems Gets A Boost.  A123 Systems got a welcome boost with a $1.4 million contract with Smith Electric Vehicle U.S. and Valence Technologies, according to VentureBeat.
• Shelby Super Car At The Dubai International Motor Show 2009.  It has been a while since we have heard from the Shelby Super Car EV Aero and it seems the company will show its intriguing EV at the Dubai International Motor Show 2009, according to AMEInfo.
• Range Anxiety Creative Solution.  AutoBlogGreen has found a creative solution to the over-hyped “range anxiety” fear, uncertainty and Doom, FUD.  Free rental cars.  Why not?
• Mini E Is Dead, Long Live The BMW ActiveE.  The rumor is now confirmed, the Mini E might not see future development, too bad but th4e ActiveE will, according to Cars.  BMW’s ActiveE will be a 100 mile range electric vehicle, EV with lithium batteries and a 4.5 hr charge.  Welcome BMW into the close tight need EV group.

That’s it for now.  Stay tuned for Rinspeed’s vision of the EV future.

• SCE Invests In A123 Systems At Tehachapi.  Southern California Edison, SCE applied for a Department of Energy, DoE grant for a massive battery storage unit supplied by MIT start up, A123 Systems in the Tehachapi, California that would produce 4,500 megawatts of wind energy by 2015, according to Paul Scott’s EV&Energy.
• Con Edison Smart Grid Plans.  On the other side of the U.S., Con Edison has applied for $46 million for smart grid demonstration projects in conjunction with the New York City Economic Development Corporation, smart grid software maker Viridity Energy, Boeing, Columbia University, The Prosser Group, CALM Energy and the Rudin Management Company to work on two way communications, V2G, according to Earth2Tec.
• Electric El Camino? Why not?  After all the car has already been manufactured and swapping its irrelevant innards, gas tank and engine makes for some sense.  At least it does to Tom Leitschuh, according to Gas2.
• Electric Cars Introduced At High School.  This is a great story and hopefully one of many to come as the Ayden-Grifton High School is getting some hands on experience with electric vehicles, EV, according to the Reflector.

That’s it for now, stay tuned for more.

• Tesla Model S, Big Batteries! A number has been mentioned for the ultimate version of the Model S and its 300 miles, 85 to 95 kw/h, according to J.B Straubel, Tesla Motor’s Chief Technical Engineer, via the NYTimes.
• Electric DeLorean? The electric DeLorean is catching more and more energy according to this Bloomberg article.  At least one person has converted his to an all electric vehicle, EV.
• Eliica Shown Off To The Press.  The 8-wheel wonder Eliica was shown to the press in Japan where it impressed a few, according to Joshua Williams form the Examiner.
• Xconomy On A123 Systems And Boston-Power.  A great article from Xconomy that takes an inside and deep look as to where those two companies are in regards of the EV market.
• Arkadelphia Police Department Turns To Hybrid.  The Arkadelphia Police Department is getting hybrids, according to NewsDay.  This is yet another case of local governments eager to cut down on long term expenses.

That’s it for now, stay tuned for more.

So far, Clean Fuel Connection, Inc., CFC has given an interesting talk about how much, or really how little the installation procedures or residential charging of electric vehicle, EV have changed in over a decade.  It still takes over a month to get the permits and inspectors to install a recharging unit in a residence.  This is something many are working on, including Chelsey Sexton.

Plug In America is here of course, with Bright Automotive.  This is a company to keep an eye on.

UQM Technologies is also showing their electric drive system.  A123 Systems is here partnered with the ever rising star, Coulomb Technology.  And yes, it is pronounced Cool Ohm!  Their ChargePoint system is monitoring the charge and upload of a converted Prius to plug-in hybrid, PHEV as well as an AC Propulsion eBox, both using V2G.  Another company we have had the pleasure of talking to was ECOtality.  What there is to like about these folks is that they are all encompassing and ready to play with others.  Kudos.

Today, Mayors Foster and Newsom will be talking as well as Southern Con Edison’s Ed Kjaer, whose interview we should have ready by the end of week.

Final thoughts?  This is a great conference where you can gauge the state of technology and where car makers are, while seeing again how far startups advances are.  One thing we can say so far after hearing GM’s Britta Gross, the company seems to be starting to grasp the complexities around an EV experience, i.e. from buying it to driving it.

Stay tuned for more.

• Blue Spark Technologies Gets $1.5M.  According to GreenTechMedia, Blue Spark Technologies has secured $1.5 million of a planned $5 million series B round to bring its line of printed carbon-zinc batteries.  While these batteries have no direct contact yet with EVs, their manufacturing process and chemistry could one day find their ways into them.
• A123 Systems Helps McLaren Win 1st F1 With KERS.  Here is something that should boost sales at A123 Systems, its battery cell system was used in the McLaren Mercedes F1 using KERS driven by Lewis Hamilton that won last weekend’s race, according to GreenCarCongress.
• Open Source Car Design.  Is it really that crazy?  According to HybridCars, three new car makers Riversimple, OScar, and Local Motors are working on the concept of open source design.
• Former Tesla Motors Joins KLD Technologies.  The former science director Rob Ferber has signed in with KLD Technologies as their chief technical officer, CTO, according to AutoBlogGreen.  KLD manufacturers electric scooters.
• Mitsubishi’s Wind Powered Plants.  Mitsubishi is planning a wind-power generator assembly plant in the U.S. or Canada early next year to benefit from President Barack Obama’s push for cleaner energy, according to Bloomberg.

That’s it for now.  Stay tuned for more.

The gist is that the clear winners are battery manufacturers.  Here are some to keep an eye on.

A123Systems. A123 Systems has been a lot on the news with their much hailed Prius plug-in hybrid, PHEV conversions.  What is important about the company?  It is working on nanoscale materials it has licensed from MIT.  What puts it in a favorable position?  It is working on energy storage systems for electric utilities.

ActaCell. Not as much on the radar, ActaCell is backed by Google and DFJ Mercury for its 2010 commercial launch.  What is important about this company?  Its devices should have a longer cycle life at lower costs than the competition.  They are part of the National Alliance for Advanced Transportation Battery Cell Manufacture.

Boston-Power. Much in the press, Boston-Power makes laptop battery and has a new battery for plug-in vehicles in May 2009.  It wants to open a new lithium-ion battery factory in Auburn, Mass..

CFX Battery. A skewer of top notch engineers, Rachid Yazami, research director of France’s National Center for Scientific Research, Caltech professor Robert H. Grubbs and French chemist Andrew Hamwi, CFX Battery is working with technology developed at Caltech to produce prismatic (flat), cylindrical, thin-film and coin lithium-ion cells.  Why is this important?  In cars, where space is at a premium and small batteries can be tucked away.

Electrovaya: The Canadian Electrovaya makes battery systems with nanostructured lithium-ion polymer technology, cells, modules and interfaces for hybrid and electric vehicles.  The company is working with international companies.  Why is it important?  It is positioning itself well in the international market.

Enax. The company started as a battery consulting service and is now working on future lithium-ion cells for future hybrid and electric drives.  It collaborates with Continental.  Why is it important?  Its new batteries should be safer with a longer service life.

Envia Systems: This Californian company raised a $3.2 million last year.  Why is it important?  It wants to develop of “high performance, low cost energy storage solutions using lithium ion batteries” for plug-in vehicles.

Imara: The California company is working on small-format batteries but is aiming for vehicle batteries.  It has requested stimulus funds from the DOE to build a plant in Portland, Ore., to produce cells for plug-in hybrid vehicle batteries.  Why is it important?  It has already raised $20 million in venture capital.

Source: Reuters.

• Samsung-Bosch Buys Cobasys.  Just more proof that the technology automobile industry is not resting with the Samsung-Bosch partnership buying Cobasys, via Reuters.  Why is this important?  Cobasys develops and produces energy storage systems for hybrid electric vehicles in the U.S. and the buyout for the SB LiMotive, the joint venture between Samsung SDI and Bosch will use Cobasys’s technology and client base, while planning to build the company into SB LiMotive’s North American center.  Hat tip:  Ken!
• Magna, 123 Systems And Volvo.  If the Volvo PHEV will use Ener1 for its battery pack and drivetrain, its buses and trucks will use Magna Steyr division that is using lithium ion cells provided by A123 Systems in a roof-mounted liquid cooled pack, according to AutoBlogGreen.  What does this mean?  It certainly places Magna as a stronger player in the hybrid field who is already working with Ford.  It also gives A123 Systems another nudge forward.
• Recharging Infrastructure Myths.  A good article from HybridCars that points out six myths, mainly, public charging will be from private companies, and will not be critical to early adoption of plug ins.  EV owners will not pay $8 to charge in public when they can do it at home for 2, but home charging hardware is not yet ready, while V2G, vehicle to grid technology is not there yet.  Not sure about the fourth point made that drivers will not use standard 110 outlets yet.  Yes, it would be too slow to recharge but might work as a topping off scenario.

That’s it for now.  Stay tuned for more.

The gist is that the U.S. is at a crossroad.  It has a healthy think tank when it comes to technological innovations but is at a clear disadvantage when it comes to mass producing its technology competitively.  The production has been relinquished to Asia for the past decades that achieves it with lowered cost, even after including shipping.

U.S. Battery Technology.  The U.S. is home to some formidable battery technology contenders, such as EnerDel, A123 Systems, etc, to name a few.  While these companies perform very well in the innovation department, they are held back by the steep costs of local production, especially compared to those found in Asia.  One Asia company that has shown the capability of affordable mass manufacturing has also become an innovation tank, BYD.  Can the U.S. compete in this department or should it just make the best of the current situation?  A tricky global balance is at stake.

Pros And Cons.  Though what looks like an ego battle, of wanting to keep production within the country, has obvious pros and cons.  Foremost, keeping production within the nation would create jobs and ramp up the economy.  While it may be debatable how any government chooses to stimulate local production, if done properly, it would have great benefits.  Cost of transportation and pollution associated with local battery manufacturing would be slashed.  Instead of shipping heavy batteries overseas with boat spewing pollutants, local manufacturing makes sense.

The cons are that local wages in the U.S. are not competitive against those of Asia.  Asian man power work for less, and the West, at least this stage just cannot compete.  Will the global financial meltdown lower the west’s expectation of higher wages?  And if so, will it not also effect Asia’s worker’s expectations?  It is hard to say yet.  Within six months, we should have a much clearer picture.  However, one question does remain.  Are we not disturbing a global balance by removing Asia’s mass production?  At this stage of the game, it is anyone’s guess.